I watched the East Coast devastation with sadness. My family lives in the New York/New Jersey area. Locales such as Seaside Heights and Seaside Park/Amusement Park hold memories. As a boy I rode the roller coaster on the now destroyed pier, terrified by a menacing drop into a dark ocean below. The landmarks are gone, but not the memories.
It didn’t take long for political opportunists to pronounce this East Coast disaster a result of Global Warming. Such claims are false.
A hurricane making a direct hit on the NYC metropolitan area was only a matter of time and every disaster planner knew it to be so. In 2000, I instructed a hurricane preparedness course in Connecticut in which the scenario was identical to Sandy’s impact.
A hurricane hitting at high tide during a full moon was certain to cause widespread flooding and major disruption to the New York City area. The full moon exacerbated the high tide and increased the storm surge. We predicted a surge of 15 feet; Sandy’s surge was under 14 feet. Pundits claim sea-level rise exacerbated the storm surge, yet the sea has risen less than a quarter inch per year, barely two feet in 100 years and not at all in the last decade.
As a matter of record, it’s happened before. Strong Hurricanes (Category 2 or higher) with storm surges of at least 10-foot made landfall in the New York area in 1693, 1788, 1821 and 1893. All occurred before the Industrial Revolution’s “global warming” effects could have taken hold. The “Great Hurricane of 1938,” known as the “Long Island Express” had a forward speed of 60mph. It was upon its victims and slammed into Long Island, N.Y., before they could react, killing over 600 people in the Northeast and leveling 2 billion trees throughout New England.
Its wind speeds averaged 121 mph and gusted to 186 mph. Sandy’s winds averaged about 63 mph with one gust recorded at 93 mph in New York City. This hurricane occurred as expected with predictable results on a major metropolitan area, especially the prolonged loss of power and fuel shortages.
When hyping this disaster, global-warming alarmists neglect to mention that the British Meteorological Office has announced that there has been no measureable warming of the earth for the last 16 years, to the chagrin of global-warming advocates at the International Panel on Climate Change from which most of the global- warming hype emanates. That statistical fact doesn’t fit their climate models and they are at a loss to explain why.
The real tragedy of Sandy is that much of the pain could have been alleviated had political leaders demonstrated foresight. It would cost about $600 billion to upgrade our power infrastructure, which would insulate much of the power grid from the catastrophic disruptions we are witnessing on the East Coast. Instead, we spent $800 billion on an economic stimulus that did exactly what besides funding failed “green-energy” projects?
Atlantic hurricanes are cyclical; this cycle was predicted in the 1970s by Dr. William Gray, considered the foremost hurricane expert in America. We’ll have more storms impacting metropolitan areas and “Global Warming” won’t be the reason. The question is, will we learn anything and properly prepare for the inevitable?
Al Fonzi is a retired Army Lt. Colonel and career intelligence officer with more than 30 years of service. He is a self-described conservative and active in several political organizations. Fonzi first moved to Atascadero in 1972.
For the complete article see the 11-07-2012 issue.
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